As geopolitical tensions in the Middle East ease, clean energy equities have reasserted their market leadership. The S&P Global Clean Energy Transition Index has gained 29% year-to-date, outperforming the S&P Global Oil Index — up 17% — by 12 percentage points, with both benchmarks comfortably ahead of the S&P 500 and MSCI World.
The Iran conflict initially drove oil prices above $118 per barrel on fears of supply disruption through the Strait of Hormuz, briefly propelling energy stocks. As tensions have since moderated and crude retreated toward $79, the balance has shifted back in favour of renewables. The crisis also accelerated a broader rethink of energy dependence across Europe, with many countries fast-tracking the clean energy transition in response.
Dario Bertagna, Senior Managing Director and Co-Head of Clean Energy, highlighted the structural lesson of the episode: the energy transition reduces dependence on imported fossil fuels and supports a more stable, resilient energy system — while technologies such as battery storage provide flexibility to manage intermittency and meet demand at peak moments.
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